"Iraq and the Regional Environment after 2020: Foreign Policy under Structural Constraints"

Abstract

After 2020, Iraq will adopt a foreign policy based on openness and strategic balance by establishing balanced diplomatic relations with all countries and employing diplomatic tools in an attempt to reposition itself as a country that enjoys the trust of its regional neighbours, and to transition from a marginal regional player to an active state that contributes to controlling alliances, reducing escalation, and forming a different formula for regional interactions based on the principle of active engagement without falling into the trap of aligning with certain axes. However, this policy faced two challenges: structural constraints related to the nature of the Iraqi political system, which is based on consensus in the administration of the state, as well as constraints related to the regional reality, particularly US-Iranian relations and the restrictions they impose on Iraq's foreign policy. Hence, this research seeks to answer the following question: To what extent will Iraq be able to adopt a balanced foreign policy after 2020 in light of internal and regional structural constraints? The research relies on systems analysis and analytical methodology to study the development of Iraqi foreign policy, its diplomatic tools, and the structural constraints that pose a challenge to Iraqi foreign policy.